Halloween Fireballs Dismissed as 'Science Fiction,' Though Tunguska Findings Give Pause

THE INTERNET — Reports that this year's autumn Taurid meteor shower might deliver city-destroying "Halloween Fireballs" are greatly exaggerated, according to presentations at the Geological Society of America's GSA Connects conference, as reported by The Debrief.

Mark Boslough, a Research Associate Professor at the University of New Mexico, told the outlet that scenarios in which many airbursts destroy cities worldwide and end civilization "are science fiction." Most such fireballs, the article notes, pose no real danger to people or structures on the ground.

The worry traces to Tunguska. Researchers believe the 1908 explosion over Siberia came from a large object within a "Taurid swarm." Published models, the article says, place the swarm in an approximate 61-year resonance with Earth, pointing to 2030, though the same models put this fall's crossing within a few weeks of October 31, 2026.

Professor Boslough's own work gives some cause for sobriety. Supercomputer simulations by planetary defense researchers, he said, indicate such events are more dangerous than once believed because they are directional explosions. In his abstract, written in deliberately mock-clickbait style, he suggests the Tunguska object arriving minutes later could have destroyed a North American city rather than threatening St. Petersburg.

He nonetheless put the odds of a Tunguska "evil twin" striking Denver, or any city, on Halloween as very close to zero. Such cases, he said, are the hypothetical exercises discussed at the biennial Planetary Defense Conference.

The abstract states the swarm model predicts close approaches in 2032 and 2036. Boslough said more powerful telescopes expected by 2032 could offer advance warning of any Tunguska-sized object on the way.